Now here is a report on the use of low-end digital cameras (not very different from mid-range mobile phones) in constraining electoral fraud. They had used Randomized Trials.

A study just released by Michael Callen and James Long, a pair of ambitious doctoral students at the University of California-San Diego, exemplifies these efforts. The two researchers evaluated whether low-end digital cameras could be a cheap and easy technological fix for election fraud in Afghanistan’s 2010 parliamentary elections. Their results are promising. At polling stations where locally reported vote counts were digitally photographed, reports of electoral fraud were as much as 60 percent lower, and the vote counts of politically connected candidates—the ones most likely to have rigged elections—were reduced by about one-quarter.

Nine years ago, Afghanistan had between 10,000 and 20,000 fixed lines, and mobile telecommunications were virtually nonexistent. Since then the country has seen explosive growth in mobile subscribers, network providers, and physical infrastructure. The total number of subscriptions is approximately 13 million for a total population of roughly 29 million people, and the annual growth rate of subscription is estimated at 53 percent (2009–10).2 A 2009 Asia Foundation survey found that 52 percent of households had mobile phones (compared to 81 percent for radio, 41 percent for television, and 6 percent for computers). Moreover, 44 percent of rural households reported having a mobile phone, and 11 percent of those surveyed said they used short message service (SMS) to receive news and information about current events at least once a week.

In a previous essay, Heeks interrogated the numbers emanating from the ITU on “mobile subscriptions.” It is a pity the same was not done in the recent piece on Internet and broadband.

For example, the ITU reports that Afghanistan had 2,000 Internet subscriptions and 1,000,000 Internet users, indicating the use of a multiplier of 500. In other words, the Afghan administration is asking us to believe that each Internet connection is used by 500 people, in addition to asking us to accept nice round numbers on the subscriptions indicator.

This illustrates the biggest weakness of the ITU’s definition of an Internet User: each national administration is allowed to use a multiplier of its choice to derive the number of Internet users from the number of Internet subscribers, in the absence of demand-side surveys, the first-best way of obtaining the indicator. No low-income countries have reported demand-side survey results. Therefore, the Internet user numbers reported by the ITU are tainted by the use of arbitrary multipliers such as the 500 used by Afghanistan (this is the most outrageous multiplier we found; most are more reasonable). But the point is that it is wrong to permit national administrations which may have incentives to look good in terms of Internet connectivity to use multipliers without any rational basis. LIRNEasia is in the process of developing a practical solution to the problem of the multiplier that will be published shortly.

The Internet User number is further flawed by definitional and reporting weaknesses in the base indicator of Internet Subscriptions.

Total Internet users = Multiplier * Total Internet subscriptions
Total Internet subscriptions =Total fixed subscriptions + Total wireless broadband subscriptions

According to the recently revised World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Definitions (2010) the definitions of these terms are below.
Total fixed (wired) Internet subscriptions = total number of Internet subscriptions with fixed (wired) Internet access, which includes dial-up and total fixed (wired) broadband subscriptions.
Total fixed (wired) broadband subscriptions = total number of subscriptions with high-speed access to the public Internet (a TCP/IP connection), at downstream speeds equal to, or greater than, 256 kbit/s.
Total wireless broadband subscriptions = sum of satellite, terrestrial fixed wireless and terrestrial mobile wireless subscriptions.

Surprisingly, even the recently improved ITU definition does not include prepaid mobile broadband subscriptions. Considering the growing number of prepaid mobile data subscriptions, especially in developing countries, this omission alone will yield significantly lower numbers of Internet subscriptions and thereby, total Internet users.

Preliminary investigations showed that in some countries such as the Maldives, even postpaid mobile data connections are not reported by operators to the administrations and therefore do not reach the ITU. In Sri Lanka, all the SIMs provided by a major operator are data-enabled. Therefore, even without a specific data plan, any customer with a data compatible mobile phone can use the Internet. These ad hoc users are not counted as Internet users by mobile operators. Therefore, the number of mobile subscriptions is underreported. As a result, the overall Internet user number is also lower than it should be.

It is necessary, before engaging is sophisticated manipulations of data to assess the quality of the data. The above discussion indicates that the current Internet User figures published by the ITU are seriously flawed because of problems in the formula, the definitions and reporting practices. Not all the problems can be resolved immediately, but they should at least be noted.

Svet Tintchev, World Bank expert on the telecom industry in developing countries, says, “The first ones who put in electricity generators in rural areas are the telecom operators … in a way, their leverage goes beyond pure telecom service.” Tintchev calls the local telecom companies “the economic enablers in Somalia”. Four main telecom companies now operate in Somalia and, despite competing for customers, they have cooperated with each other to maintain their networks and set prices to ensure that competition doesn’t become too cutthroat. Horseed Media writes quoting Wall Street Journal.

On the fixed side, assisted by CDMA phones that are counted as fixed, Sri Lanka is the leader (17 connection per 100 people), followed by Maldives (15 per 100).

Like in cricket, the middle of the rankings are the most interesting. Both Pakistan (50/100) and Bhutan (37/100) are ahead of India (29/100) in mobile. This shows that India cannot afford to let up the pace of 10 million connections a month for some time. If it does, it might be overtaken by Afghanistan (29/100) and even Bangladesh (28/100).

Of course, the fact that Afghanistan is ahead of Bangladesh in mobile penetration should cause all sorts of palpitations in government offices in Dhaka. Bangladesh was one of the earliest in South Asia to adopt mobile and is the most densely populated country in the world. How they were overtaken by Afghanistan, a war-torn country with difficult terrain, should cause serious re-examination of policies such as the BDT 800 SIM tax. The fact that Afghanistan’s CAGR for 2003-08 is 109%, higher than Bangladesh’s 2003-08 CAGR of 101%, suggests that the gap between the two countries is more likely to increase than decrease.

In the fixed rankings, we find Afghanistan occupying the cellar (0.37/100 people) behind Bangladesh (0.84/100). Pakistan (2.5/100) is behind Nepal (2.8/100). This is very surprising given the apparent superiority of the Pakistan policy and regulatory framework. Both use CDMA on the fixed access side, so that cannot be the explanation. Comments from Pakistani colleagues would be most welcome.

India is the only country showing negative growth in fixed over the 2003-08 period (-2%), but this simply because India is more honest in its reporting, counting CDMA on the mobile side instead of on the fixed side. For example Sri Lanka is experiencing negative growth in wireline, that is masked by CDMA growth.

From 2003 to 2008, the number of active SIMs has increased by over 12 times, while the number of fixed connections has decreased marginally, the negative growth in India wiping out all the gains in the rest of South Asia. South Asia is clearly the territory of the mobile.

LIRNEasia might not be as high tech as some of the big IT players but in our own way we have made a successful effort to make ourselves a virtual team. Not a choice – that was the only way we could operate in multiple countries (For example, in this cycle, TRE surveys will be in nine countries -  Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Maldives, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Thailand; not to mention CPRSouth 3 in Beijing)without budgets comparable to what INGOs use to run regional networks.

We also thought our own experiences will be useful for others. Hence the Virtual Organisation (VO)  project. It had two aspects; developing the VO and using it to conduct LIRNEasia’s other research projects.

The case study is now out. It describes our efforts, outcome and lessons learnt. It is intended for any research/civil society (or even private sector or government) organisation, with limited staff that plans to work from geographically distant locations. It is also for project based organisations with limited overhead budgets.

Downlaod the full report at the link below.

Report: LIRNEasia as a model Virtual Organisation

DIRSI’s study on mobile price and affordability also adapts the OECD price baskets to compare the monthly costs of using mobiles in six Latin American countries. The Latin American baskets take into consideration call and SMS volumes and usage data as specified in the OECD methodology,[5] but excludes initial connection charges. The DIRSI study also does not report data on postpaid or indicate whether different MoUs have been applied to prepaid and postpaid.

Despite differences in methodology, it is interesting to note the rather large differences in the monthly costs between users in South Asia and Latin America; even though the former takes into account a broader set of costs. Table 1 shows that a low user in Afghanistan (who pays the most in South Asia) is still paying approximately half that paid by a low user in the cheapest of the Latin American countries studied (Argentina) when comparing the findings in straight USD. In Purchasing Power Parity terms (which reflect affordability), the differences are still dramatic.

The study compares mobile tariffs in South Asia using price baskets, derived from those used by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The baskets are calculated for low, medium and high users for pre- as well as postpaid tariff plans, factoring in usage charges (voice and SMS), line rental, connection charges (depreciated over a three year period), and applicable taxes.

For more information on results and methodology, please click HERE.

“This is really the early days, but when you see the low banking penetration in emerging markets, compared to rapidly growing mobile penetration, the potential is very big,” said James Moberly, senior manager for payment solutions at Vodafone on the sidelines of the Mobile World Congress here.

The GSM Association, the global mobile phone industry body, estimates that about a dozen such schemes involving money transfer services are in operation throughout the world, with 10 million users.

Vodafone plans to launch cash transfer services soon in India and other African countries.

“You can send money, withdraw cash, pay your bills or your loan, and all this is within seconds,” said Aleeda Fazal, head of product development at Afghan group Roshan, which is the partner for Vodafone in the troubled country.

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Afghan Wireless Communication Company (AWCC) has launched per-second billing on its GSM network.  

In a press briefing at its Kabul headquarters, AWCC Managing Director, Amin Ramin said: ” We have ensured Microwave connectivity, widest coverage in the country, simple call rates, amazing call quality, superb connectivity even on highways, and today we are announcing the Per Second Billing PLUS for the entire Afghan Wireless family.” 

Afghan Wireless is the largest private investor in Afghanistan. It is also the country’s largest employer, having nearly 3,000 people directly in the payroll and another 30,000 indirectly. 

With an investment of $300 million, Etisalat’s mobile phone network will initially cover Afghanistan’s main cities. Etisalat, the third-largest Arab telecom firm by market value, joins four other telecommunication companies operating in the country.  

These companies have invested some $800 million in the Afghan telecoms sector and the government has earned $100 million from them in the past year in tax and from issuing licences. Read more.

Afghan economy is predominantly rural, and trade and industry are badly hampered by crumbling roads and chronic electricity shortages. Not including the illicit trade in opium, the nation’s few exports include dried fruit and carpets. 

But like in other developing nations, cell phone service providers have been doing brisk business, bringing communication to poor villagers who until four years rarely, if ever, used a telephone. 

“In Afghanistan, the majority of our people will be connected through mobile phones,” Sangin told The Associated Press. “… We have gone straight into the age of personal communication.” 

Calling rates are currently about 10 cents a minutes, with the cheapest phone cards on sale for the equivalent of $1. Coverage is generally available in all the country’s 34 provinces. Read more. 

Do Business and Islam Mix? Ask Him – New York Times

Roshan has 1.3 million subscribers and is adding 60,000 a month. The Afghan government gets 6 percent of its tax revenue from the company, Ms. Abdulla says. Roshan says it employs 900 people, about 180 of whom are women.

“In Afghanistan, the Aga Khan is creating an enabling environment for business,” says Mr. Patel at the World Bank. “While producing results, these are early days. It’s too soon to see a payoff from his investments.”

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