The $1 trillion telecommunications industry has long been one of the most resilient parts of the economy. But as the financial crisis has intensified, it has recently become clear that telecom can’t escape the fallout of the credit crunch.

Although most analysts believe the damage won’t be nearly as bad as the last telecom bust—when hundreds of firms went bankrupt, including giant Worldcom—there is growing evidence that the financial crisis is going to depress the debt-heavy telecom industry. To start with, rising capital costs are likely to take a bite out of earnings. In addition, the softening economy will probably crimp demand for such telecom services as land lines, cell phones, and Internet connections. Over the last week several Wall Street analysts trimmed their 2009 earnings estimates for AT&T, Verizon Communications, Sprint Nextel, and other operators. “Everyone is going to pay more for credit,” says Craig Moffett, a senior analyst with Sanford Bernstein who has been bearish on telecom stocks.

A telecom slowdown could ripple through the technology sector. If the operators’ cash flow declines as expected, that’s likely to cause them to cut back on their capital spending plans. This would hurt the primary equipment makers that supply gear to the industry, as well as those that sell to them. It would also slow down the build out of future wireless and terrestrial networks.

Read the full article in Business Week here.

India has, in fact, one of the lowest broadband subscriber penetration rates in Asia. So what accounts for the slow growth? One reason could be the price of a broadband connection. Broadband is defined by TRAI as an always-on data connection that can support internet access and a minimum download speed of 256 kbps. Prices for such connections have remained static the past few years. A simple comparison between the cost of broadband in India and, say, the United States, reveals that on a one-year contract, while the cost per month of a connection in both countries is roughly the same, the data transfer speed in the US is at least double than that in India.

Read the full article here.

India’s vital outsourcing industry, which relies heavily on the Internet, was grappling with a major communications disruption Thursday after damage to undersea cables thousands of kilometres away in the Mediterranean.

Internet connections may take up to 15 days to return to normal, businesses said, adding that telecommunications in neighbouring Bangladesh and Sri Lanka were also affected.

Powered by ScribeFire.

TOKYO — The United States may be the world’s largest economy, but when it comes to Internet connections at home, many Americans still live in the slow lane. By contrast, Japan is a broadband paradise with the fastest and cheapest Internet connections in the world.

Nearly eight million Japanese have a fiber optic line at home that is as much as 30 times speedier than a typical DSL line.

But while that speed is a boon for Japanese users, industry analysts and some companies question whether the push to install fiber is worth the effort, given the high cost of installation, affordable alternatives and lack of services that take advantage of the fast connections.

Powered by ScribeFire.

However, yesterday’s Wall Street Journal (March 15, 2007) seems to suggest that high speed 3G wireless technology like HSDPA can bring broadband on a large scale to Indonesians. It (misleadingly) implies that since HSDPA is merely a software upgrade to 3G networks it will not require any new major telecom infrastructure investment in Indonesia. The fact is that 3G services have just been launched in the last quarter of 2006 in some urban areas concentrated in and around Jakarta. The Indonesian operators have a long way to go to upgrade all their base stations to support 3G. Even if the base stations were upgraded to 3G standards there are no shortcuts to building backbone infrastructure (preferably fiber optic) to connect the base stations. Furthermore, large parts of eastern Indonesia do not have any connectivity leave alone 2G or 3G.

Realistically, HSDPA will be a connectivity solution for those customers who have been starved off ADSL connectivity thanks to Pt Telkom’s “Dog in the manger” attitude. Those customers who can afford HSDPA compatible handsets will be a very small subset of potential Internet users in Indonesia. 2+G connectivity solutions will continue to remain relevant for a vast majority of Indonesians.
Indonesia Embraces 3G to Get Up to Speed on Web (Wall Street Journal March 15, 2007)
JAKARTA, Indonesia — Indonesia’s rapid adoption of cutting-edge cellphone technology for Internet access is helping Southeast Asia’s largest economy to catch up with its technologically savvier neighbors.

A sprawling nation of 220 million people and more than 13,000 islands, Indonesia has one of the least-developed communications systems in Asia. Getting a phone connection without echoes or distortion is a matter of luck, and Internet connections relying on cable networks are among the slowest in the region.

The arrival of High-Speed Downlink Packet Access, or HSDPA — a software upgrade to 3G mobile-phone technology that allows users faster access to the Internet through cellular networks — could help change that[..]

HSDPA technology, pioneered in Indonesia by PT Indonesia Satellite Corp., or Indosat, offers Internet download speeds at least six times as fast as connections relying on cable, a wider difference than in a more-developed economy. And because it’s an add-on to 3G technology, it doesn’t need any major new telecom infrastructure — just some equipment attached to existing mobile base stations.

Indonesia also is primed for expansion because less than 30% of its population currently uses cellphones, compared with 80% in Malaysia and 40% in the Philippines. Indonesia has 65 million mobile users; industry analysts forecast that number will reach 100 million by 2010.

Since starting its service in November, Indosat has signed 60,000 customers in Jakarta and Surabaya, Indonesia’s second-largest city. Working with Ericsson and Nokia, the company hopes to add coverage to eight other major cities by the end of March. “It’s going to be very popular,” predicts Djarot Handoko, a spokesman for Indosat.

Nokia is working with another local telecommunications company, PT Telekomunikasi Selular, to start an HSDPA service in Indonesia later this year. Indonesia is one of the biggest potential markets for 3G, says a Nokia executive advising the company[..]

Dev Yusmananda, an executive at PT Excelcomindo Pratama, which has just started a similar service, says the prospective Indonesian market is huge. “We’re talking about it [HSDPA] as a substitution for a broadband connection,” he says.

Ironically, the interest generated by the arrival of HSDPA is a consequence of Indonesia’s failure to build a decent national cable grid. The country had plans to lay an extensive network in the 1990s, but the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98 intervened, and many projects were shelved. Many of the cables that were installed were poorly laid. Recent flooding in Jakarta damaged networks and left many people without Internet access for days[..]

Have the Bangladesh mobile operators solved the problems of providing reliable and cost-effective Internet connections over GSM networks?

Internet Extends Reach Of Bangladeshi Villagers – washingtonpost.com

Villages in one of the world’s poorest countries, long isolated by distance and deprivation, are getting their first Internet access, all connected over cellphones. And in the process, millions of people who have no land-line telephones, and often lack electricity and running water, in recent months have gained access to services considered basic in richer countries: weather reports, e-mail, even a doctor’s second opinion.Cellphones have become a new bridge across the digital divide between the world’s rich and poor, as innovators use the explosive growth of cellphone networks to connect people to the Internet.

Bangladesh now has about 16 million cellphone subscribers — and 2 million new users each month — compared with just 1 million land-line phones to serve a population of nearly 150 million people.

Since February, Internet centers have opened in well over 100 Bangladeshi villages, and a total of 500 are scheduled to be open by the end of the year. All of them are in places where there are no land lines and the connections will be made exclusively over cellphone networks.

Before February, analysts said, only 370,000 Bangladeshis had access to the Internet. But now millions of villagers have access to information and services that had been available only by walking or taking long and expensive bus rides, or were beyond their reach altogether.

People now download job applications and music, see school exam results, check news and crop prices, make inexpensive Internet phone calls or use Web cameras to see relatives. Students from villages with few books now have access to online dictionaries and encyclopedias.