Surprises me, the skepticism of some Bangla friends here about their own broadband potential. The rest of the world seems to think otherwise. In the maps above the country sizes indicate their Internet penetration. Bigger the country more widespread is the net. (Found them sometime back in Cyber Geography, but cannot locate the source anymore.)

Of course, predicted 2015 figures might be based on many assumptions, which may or may not be valid in long term. Still, don’t we see the bottom-line? If these maps were to be believed Bangladesh will certainly be a market leader in 2015. Are we sure to have adequate reasons to question that?

Agreed, none of the South Asian countries, including India, has reached a level to boast about broadband penetration. We might still be in sub 1% range. It is also largely an urban phenomenon with majority of the users ranting about the quality.

The question: Should it remain so always? Don’t we know most current broadband giants reached that level almost overnight? Will not the new telecom reforms bring some hopes to Bangladesh? Is 30% coverage by 2015 a pipe dream?

You tell me!

Recent International Telecommunication Union (ITU) data reveals that the success of India’s telecom revolution is restricted to mobile voice with very little to showcase in fixed line and internet access, or high-speed broadband. For a country that is the global IT and ITeS capital or the world’s back office, its own internet penetration remains one of the lowest in the world. Forecasts are equally uninspiring, projecting high-speed internet access to remain abysmal till 2012.

Internet broadband penetration will limp along to eventually reach a measly 3.9 connections for every 100 citizens by 2012. Even though internet users may be multiple times higher, actual broadband penetration will not exceed 18.1 million at the beginning of the next decade. In contrast, mobile telephony will add as many as 350 million subscribers during this five-year period to end at roughly 615 million by mid 2012.

These forecasts fall short of the government’s conservative target of 20 million high-speed internet subscribers by 2010-end. India’s broadband penetration is roughly 4.5 million subscribers. Even with a 300% growth rate over the next five years, the sector will fall short of the 50 million mark by 2012.

Read the full story in The Times of India here.

He says: “In some emerging markets PC and internet penetration is so low that the only way for end users to have any kind of data services – even to check the price of goods – is to do it by SMS. Registration is free to read the full article.

Divakar Goswami, LIRNEasia’s Director, Organizational and Projects, who was moderating the panel asked the following question:

One of the first achievements of your government was to delicense the 2.4 GHz frequency that allowed communities to use Wi-Fi extensively in the country. Despite that, Indonesia currently has Internet penetration of 0.69 percent. You have about 124 ISPs that operate in Indonesia. How do you explain the low penetration and what are the barriers preventing Internet from growing faster in Indonesia? When we look at broadband sector we see that penetration is even lower. What are the barriers that can be lifted so that this sector can grow?

Minister Sofyan Djalil:

There are a number of barriers to Internet growth that we have identified and we will solve in short period of time. One of the bottlenecks is international fiber optic cables. Right now the international capacity is low and price of international bandwith in Indonesia is very high. Currently international backbone is on the basis of half-circuit and Indonesian operator cannot determine the price as they wish. Next month we will invite investors to come to Indonesia, and several have shown interest, to lay fiber optic from Jakarta to any destination in the world. To Hong Kong, Sidney or to any other country especially where the destination has liberalized international bandwidth market and no discriminatory pricing. So this should take care of the bottleneck of international fiber optic in a very short period of time.

The second problem is we have limited access to domestic backbone. Right now several operators have fiber optic based network in the country. But they don’t share with others. So we are going to introduce a new regulation to force all operators to share fiber optic facilities. In addition to that, we will invite investors lay down domestic fiber optic to come and connect all our cities in Indonesia. We have an objective that with the Palapa Ring project we want to connect all the cities, about 500 cities all over Indonesia with Internet.

To solve the problem of last mile, next week may be this Friday, we will issue a tender for interested parties to bid for 2.3 MHz frequency for broadband wireless. We hope that it will be deployed very soon in Indonesia.

By introducing these three initiatives, we believe that by next year or no later than one and a half years from now the problem of broadband in Indonesia will be solved.

The other problem of course is like other developing countries, we have many people living in rural areas. Right now 30,000 islands have no access to telecommunications as yet. We have a very ambitious program to connect them. We charge universal service obligation from any operator, 0.75 percent of their gross income. We believe that by using this USO fund by 2010 all these villages will be connected. After that we start providing Internet service to those villages.

(Note: Price data is not yet included; will be done as the tariff data is collected)
The Indonesian telecom sector has seen three waves of liberalization.

• 1st Wave: 1991-1996 (Private investment in sector-financial
  crisis)
  Creation of Satelindo, 2nd International service provider in 1993.
  Partial privatization of PT Indosat (65% Govt retains control) in
  1994
  Exclusivity granted to PT Telkom for fixed local 2010 and long distance 2005 before it was partially privatized in 1995 (66% but government retains control).
  GSM licenses provided to Satelindo & Telkomsel subsidiaries of two incumbents in 1994.
  GSM license issued to PT Excelcomindo in 1996, competitive provider with no financial links to government.
  ISP licenses issued
• 2nd Wave of Reforms
  1999-2004 (Post crisis-Change of guard)
  Telecom Act of 1999 separating policy & regulatory functions, allowing increased private participation
  Ending of cross-ownership between government owned telcos
  Premature ending of PT Telkom’s exclusivity
  Creation of duopoly for fixed sector
  Ministerial decree (KM 31/2003) creating BRTIRegulatory Body
  Merger of Satelindo with PT Indosat, Telkomsel with
  PT Telkom
• 3rd Wave of reforms
  2005- present (New government of Yudhoyono)
  Unlicensing of 2.4 GHz
  Licensing of three Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) providers, two incumbent and Esia (Bakrie Group).
  Auction of 5 3G licenses to Telkomsel, Excelcom, Indosat, Hutchinson, Lippo-Maxxis
  Licenses granted to 15 VoIP operators including major operators
  USO fund established (Regulation No. 15) in 2005 where all operators contribute 0.75% of gross revenue.
  Government regulation (GR2/2006) on mandated cost-based interconnection
  Reference Interconnect Offer to be submitted by all operators to
  BRTI, dominant operators’ RIO will be published.
  Tariff regulation for leased lines

What were the drivers of growth?
Initially the government allowed domestic investment. Then the government decided to attract foreign investment via concessions with the promise of reform.
Lorraine Carlos Salazar says: who exactly are these stakeholders who supported entry of FDI in the sector? 
DG: Mastel, the Ministry
Before the Asian Crisis, there was a lot of interest in Eastern Asia, however after the Crisis, much of the Investment dried up. Government was then forced to undergo reform (driving the 2nd wave of reform).
Lorraine Carlos Salazar says: Did the incumbent wanted FDI?
Payal Malik says:  lack of domestic resources were the drivers for the incumbent being open to FDIs, as in the case of Thailand.  They were not averse to FDIs because it went into their own networks and it wasn;t competition
Divakar: Incumbent benefited from the FDI b/c it allowed them profit from the other companies, without risk. Lack of domestic resources were the drivers for FDI
Third wave of reforms driven by the promise by the current government to end corruption. Unlicensing of the 2.4Ghz band was driven by a civil society campaign. Recognition of merits of competition due to the success of the mobile sector) also added to the motivation.
2006 has seen a lot of growth, and investment in infrastructure. E.g no. of base stations has doubled since the start of the year.
absence of interconnection regime led to pvt companies choosing to invest in mobile rather than fixed.
fixed wire-line growth has not changed since 2005; given falling population, fixed teledensity is likely to fall.
PT Telekom’s fixed wireless subscriber has actually dropped – because many signed up for the ‘Flexi’ package for free minutes; once the free minutes were all used up, many discontinued use (and moved to Easia which have very low rates).
Fixed wireless operators are only allowed to operate within certain area codes. To circumvent restricted mobility for the fixed wireless subscriber, operators allow call forwarding and temporary roaming.
While many argue that Java has ‘all the phones’, its teledensity is actually fairly low; the issue is Java has a high population.
The graph on Slide 19 shows Easia’s ARPU increasing (unlike what is normally seen), however the data is being checked.
Easia’s spends a lot on advertising; they are a highly recognized brand.
Payal Malik says: Just for reference, Fixed wireless is not important in India so no separate data on ARPUs
Lorraine Carlos Salazar says: yes, same with Philippines and Thailand I think
In the mobile sector, Telkomsel, Indosat and Excelcomindo are the main players. the other companies are starting up.

Although mobile service is cheaper in Indonesia in absolute terms, it is relatively expensive (relative to monthly GNI).
When mobile market share is calculated as % of sector revenues (as opposed to subscribers), there is a change in the shares. The incumbent has a 68% share, as opposed to 55%. Directionally, the market share doesn’t change, but exact shares do.
Vasana – how practical is it to calculate in this way?
Divakar  – it’s a controversial issue.
Distribution of telecom access (Slide # 27) shows that there are a multiple mobiles within households.
When Indonesia is compared to the other ASEAN countries, its performance is quite poor.
Harsha de Silva: Singapore – Internet penetration is higher than fixed line penetration; why?
Divakar: access is through WiFi (ubiquitous WiFi coverage in Singapore) as well as mobile Internet.
ADSL is almost invisible (Slide 29) b/c the incumbent owns all the infrastructure.
Household PC ownership is low; Internet access via those PCs is EVEN lower.
Telecom regulatory performance:
Lorraine Carlos Salazar says: please clarify– the regulator is separate from the Dept of Telecoms? What does the latter do? still own the former fixed line monopoly is it?
Divakar: Not really separate, b/c of Chairman BRTI is also the Director of Dept of Telecoms.
Most of regulatory activity is done by BRTI.
Not telecom policy to guide the decisions and direction that the ministry is taking. Although the ministry is quite active in making decisions, there is a lack of coherence in the actions / decisions that are being taken.
Lorraine Carlos Salazar says: with regards issuances– are they hiring external consultants? who are writing these issuances?
Divakar: consultants are being hired to do various things; but in terms of writings and decrees, they are competent enough to do these on their own.

Lorraine: Is there really a plan or policy on telecoms lib, which provides guidance on the issuance of licenses? or is to ad hoc and open to  or lobbying, rent-seeking, etc.?
It is actually an opportunity if licenses are given in an ad hoc manner, b/c there is opportunity to illustrate to the Minister where a license will be useful, and there will be a hope that the Minister will give that license.
Rohan: Yes, but there is also another side of ‘ad hoc’ behavior (eg giving a license to your brother)
Divakar: the process is much more transparent now than before, and public consultations are mandatory by law.
TRE assessment:
Mobile sector has scored well on Mkt entry – this is b/c entry has been open; auctions were held as recently as last year. 3G operators are also allowed to provide 2G services
Bottlenecks in the fixed sector cause problems in other sectors, such as banks not being able to have points of presence (via credit card sales points).

Leased Line Tariffs to be Regulated

Bisnis Indonesia, September 27, 2006
JAKARTA: The Indonesian Telecommunication Regulatory Body (BRTI) will regulate the tariffs for leased lines through a ministerial decree, which is expected to be signed end of this year. The regulator most likely will force network operators to lower leased line tariffs by more than 50 percent to push internet penetration in Indonesia.

BRTI said this in a public meeting with Mastel, internet service providers, and network operators yesterday. Heru Sutadi, a member of BRTI, expected a decline of more than 50% in the tariffs will increase ICT usage, internet interconnection, telephone penetration and increase the number of internet users in Indonesia.

“The regulator expects the decline in leased line tariffs will be followed by the acceleration of local internet content, so that bandwidth doesn’t get used outside the country and internet tariffs can drop significantly,” he said yesterday. Leased line is the network that connects internet service provider with retail customers, also called E1.

BRTI said investment estimate during the network construction 10 to 15 years ago had to include depreciation. Fifteen years ago, the price for each kilometer of E1 was about 90 million rupiah, which has drastically declined to about 3 million rupiah at present.

According to the post and telecommunication directorate general (DG POSTEL), Telkom, Indosat and Excelcomindo are the major operators in the sector.

Mastel estimated that the leased line tariffs in Indonesia is 48 times more expensive than India. Internet service operators have said that the high tariffs made internet costs for customers. The Association of Indonesian Internet Service Providers expects the decline in leased line tariffs will push for a healthy competition in providing internet to retail customers.

Heru said the decline in leased line tariffs will be followed by the plan to build domestic optic fiber network (Palapa ring), while the line to outside the country is currently being tendered. “The number of internet users will rise significantly considering that retail tariffs will surely fall,” he said.

According to data from the internet association, there are between 16 million and 20 million internet users in Indonesia, or about 8 percent of the population. Sarwoto Atmosumarno, head of long distance division at PT Telkom, said that the company basically approves of BRTI plan, especially in the era of multi-operators, when the prices for telecommunication services should be competitive.

“The regulator must see whether leased line service is a monopoly or not that needs to be regulated,” he said
to Bisnis yesterday. Sarwoto also said that regulator in determining the tariffs should not violate the law, which stipulates that BRTI has the right to establish the formula, and not the tariffs itself. Thus far, the regulator has not applied this rule, for example in the fixed telephone tariffs, he said.

DG: Indonesia is a challenging country to connect. 17000 islands. teledensity is 12%, compares poorly with its neighbors. Internet penetration is far lower than Asian average.
 So what has given rise to Wifi in Indonesia?

• Regulatory conditions (non independent regulator, exclusivities, no local loop unbundling, etc.)
• lack of competition in infrastructure sector (leading to very high prices and proliferation of unlicensed ISPs, etc)
• extent of infrastructural development (uneven backbone development, leased-lines not available)
• grassroots activism (lobbying to get 2.4GHz unlicensed, etc)

Lessons learnt:

• hostile environment spawned Wifi and related innovations; can this be replicated without the baggage?
• Wifi is quick and involves less hassle  in deployment; however it has some difficulties.
• Wifi has not contributed to spread of Internet use in Indonesia; unless leased line prices are regulates or effective competition if introduces, Internet diffusion will remain slow.

HdeS: Wifi is a local solution, how can it lead to widespread Internet use?

DG: Wifi is being used for backhaul in Indonesia. It’s the next-best solution for a setting where the optimal doesn’t work.

So What can be replicated?

• civil society role – training, etc.
• Internet exchange