Recent International Telecommunication Union (ITU) data reveals that the success of India’s telecom revolution is restricted to mobile voice with very little to showcase in fixed line and internet access, or high-speed broadband. For a country that is the global IT and ITeS capital or the world’s back office, its own internet penetration remains one of the lowest in the world. Forecasts are equally uninspiring, projecting high-speed internet access to remain abysmal till 2012.

Internet broadband penetration will limp along to eventually reach a measly 3.9 connections for every 100 citizens by 2012. Even though internet users may be multiple times higher, actual broadband penetration will not exceed 18.1 million at the beginning of the next decade. In contrast, mobile telephony will add as many as 350 million subscribers during this five-year period to end at roughly 615 million by mid 2012.

These forecasts fall short of the government’s conservative target of 20 million high-speed internet subscribers by 2010-end. India’s broadband penetration is roughly 4.5 million subscribers. Even with a 300% growth rate over the next five years, the sector will fall short of the 50 million mark by 2012.

Read the full story in The Times of India here.

This is what ITU’s Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Report for the Asia-Pacific region 2008 says. It was released at ITU TELECOM ASIA 2008, Bangkok, Thailand yesterday (Sept 2, 2008).

The Report finds evidence that ICTs and broadband uptake foster growth and development, but the question remains as to the optimal speed that should be targeted in view of limited resources.

The area in which the region really stands out is the uptake of advanced Internet technologies, especially broadband Internet access. The Asia-Pacific region is the world’s largest broadband market with a 39 per cent share of the world’s total at the end of 2007. In terms of broadband access, Asia-Pacific has made remarkable progress in the past few years, with subscriber numbers growing almost five-fold in five years: from 27 million at the beginning of 2003 to 133 million at the start of 2008.

In the region’s high-income economies, ubiquitous access is progressing through a competitive race to provide ever faster fixed broadband access. Operators in Hong Kong (China) and Japan have launched one-Gigabits per second (Gbps) broadband and triple-play services aimed at the residential market, featuring applications such as Internet telephony and television. The Republic of Korea leads the world in terms of the percentage of households with fixed broadband access, and no less than five economies in the top ten are from Asia-Pacific. The Republic of Korea, Hong Kong (China), and Japan also lead the world in terms of the proportion of households with fibre optic connections, essential for supporting the next generation of ultra-high speed Internet applications.

These high-income economies are also leaders in terms of third generation (3G) mobile cellular deployment. Fixed and mobile broadband technologies complement each other and users enjoy continuous high-speed Internet access. In Singapore, a ubiquitous Internet access plan combining unlimited 8 Megabits per second (Mbps) fixed broadband, 2 Mbps mobile broadband and access at some 800 Wi-Fi hotspots is available for just USD 35 per month.

At the other extreme, in most of the region’s low and lower-middle income economies, high-speed Internet access is limited to urban areas at best, typically expensive, and often not available at all. The regional broadband divide is striking, with poor economies having a close-to-zero broadband penetration, compared to that of rich economies where one in four persons is a broadband subscriber (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Fixed broadband Internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants, 2007

The gap in available broadband speeds between rich and poor countries is as wide as broadband penetration. In Japan, the Republic of Korea and Hong Kong (China), the minimum advertised broadband speed is faster than the maximum broadband speed in Cambodia, Tonga, Laos and Bangladesh.

While in low and lower-middle income economies mobile phones have become a substitute for the shortage of fixed lines, they are not yet fulfilling the potential of broadband access. By the end of 2007, only Indonesia, the Maldives, the Philippines and Sri Lanka had commercially deployed WCDMA networks. The region’s two largest mobile markets, China and India, have yet to launch mobile broadband. By the end of 2007, there were over 120 million mobile broadband subscribers in the region (Figure 2), but almost all (97 per cent) were in high income economies.

Figure 2: Mobile cellular broadband subscribers in Asia-Pacific

While the region’s high-income economies are pushing the frontier of broadband bandwidth to a point where applications have yet to catch up, many Asia-Pacific developing economies are bandwidth starved, inhibiting the development of their information societies.

The ITU Report argues that broadband uptake enables a range of socially desirable and valuable online services in areas such as government, education and health. The use of broadband technologies can help overcome many of the basic development challenges faced by poor countries. The Report provides a number of examples where broadband connectivity has acted as a catalyst for development. These include the provision of education through distance learning in the Solomon Islands, the creation of jobs through business incubators for women in China, and the supply of communication services for disaster management in Myanmar.

Read the press release here. Full report is not yet available in the public domain.

(Please click on the images for a better view)

Industry analysts say person using Internet telephony to make calls would see his call charges falling by as much as 50-60 per cent compared to a normal telephone call today. This will benefit an ordinary home user as well as corporates and other industries alike. Internet telephony would help telecom penetration in rural India.

Till now Internet telephony was allowed only between personal computers or to mobile or landlines abroad. But complete Internet telephony would mean that calls can also be made to landlines and mobiles in India as well as abroad. To start using Internet telephony, just an adapter is needed that converts a regular landline with broadband connection to a net phone.

Read the full story in ‘The Hindu’ here.

August has been a busy month for the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) and its chairman, the redoubtable Nripendra Misra, a dyed-in-wool bureaucrat who has in his regulatory avatar done arguably more than any of his predecessors on the job. He has plenty of support and equally bitter critics who wish he would give up on forbearance, cut rentals, mandate cheaper roaming and ensure per second billing instead of per minute.

On August 20, the authority allowed India’s estimated 295 million telecom subscribers the freedom to use different long distance service providers without changing their service provider. Two days earlier, it had unshackled internet telephony (voice transmitted over internet protocol networks). Two weeks before that, it had opened the doors for virtual mobile networks, virgin territory in India till then.

Read the full article in Business Standard here.

NEW YORK–In spite of its global popularity, Internet telephony (VoIP), which is almost free for users, has not become a gold mine for its pioneers such as Skype and Vonage.

Popular online auction firm eBay, which bought Skype two years ago for $2.6 billion, affirmed that message in a costly way earlier this week when it devalued the once-darling firm, knocking $1.43 billion off its value.

The accounting move was long anticipated.

“We are glad to see eBay admit that it overpaid for Skype and that much-hyped synergies have not yet materialized to any large extent,” said global financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald.

“We have struggled with the economics of the Skype transaction relative to the financial expectations for the business.”

 Read full story

The articles describes the problems faced by VoIP operators in the US, where the basic infrastructure is already in place. In countries of the South, we have to keep in mind that the fiber has not been laid; the households have not all been connected; etc.

Internet Phone Company Halts Operations – New York Times

Start-ups like SunRocket and Vonage, the largest and best known of the group, tend to offer only phone service, and they do not have the ability of the larger companies to ensure quality of service because they do not operate their own telecommunications lines, said Richard Greenfield, a media analyst at Pali Research in New York. “They only have one product and they can’t control quality,” Mr. Greenfield said, adding that the business is “extremely challenging.”According to estimates from TeleGeography Research, SunRocket is the second-largest Internet phone start-up, after Vonage, with a 2 percent market share.

In April, SunRocket said its 200,000-subscriber milestone was a testament to customers’ embrace of Internet phone service, which allows calls to be transmitted as data over the Internet.

As a selling point, SunRocket offered potential customers a year of unlimited calling in the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico for $199.

Vonage, which went public last year, was a pioneer in the commercialization of the technology. But its fortunes have floundered, along with its shares, which closed yesterday at $2.95.

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Mobile phone use is taking off in Sri Lanka – though not, perhaps, in ways that service operators might have hoped.

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

In the world’s poorer countries, the purchase of a mobile phone has become increasingly affordable. Using it, however, can still be a struggle. Low-income mobile phone owners in Sri Lanka are getting around this problem with a novel method for keeping costs down.

Known as ring cutting, mobile phone subscribers rely on ring tones to communicate with others, rather than actually staying on the line to talk. By a pre-arranged signal that will convey the desired message – “two rings means I’m home” – callers negate the need for a conversation. They simply hang up as soon as the number of tones are finished. The recipients’ phone log records the number of the person who dialled, and at what time. They can choose to call back, or not.

In a country where regular bloodshed, terrorism and sectarian violence has many people living in fear of their safety, ring cutting has developed into an extremely popular, cost-effective way of keeping in touch. A recent survey by LIRNEasia, a regional telecoms think-tank that studied mobile phone usage patterns in Sri Lanka, India, Pakistan, the Philippines and Thailand, found that Sri Lanka lagged only the Philippines in the ring cut stakes. LIRNEAsia surveyed around 9,000 low income earners aged between 18 and 80 years old. About half of mobile phone users in Sri Lanka are confirmed ring cutters, compared to 65% in the Philippines.

The economics of ring cutting are simply. Sri Lankans can buy a mobile phone for about US$30. But call rates of 5.00 rupees (0.05 US cents) per minute are not affordable to the many who earn less than US$100 a month. However, under a pre-pay system they can pay as little as 20 rupees (0.19 US cents) for a SIM card. If they mostly use their phones to ring cut, the credit on the SIM card can last for months.

Needless to say, telecom service providers are hardly thrilled by the practice. Mobile phone companies offer incoming calls for free and rely on a connection being completed to make their money. Adding insult to injury, many people use landlines, often at their workplace, to return calls, further circumventing the mobile network. Harsha de Silva, LIRNEasia’s lead economist, observes: “Missed calls are not good for the networks – less revenue; not good for the state – less taxes; and not necessarily good for the user – networks get blocked and we can’t talk.”

Model e-village

And for those Sri Lankans not able to jump onto the mobile bandwagon, a new service is taking root that’s even better than ring cutting. Far from the bright lights of Colombo, the country’s first 24-hour outdoor wireless computer network is now up and running in Mahavilachchiya, an tiny village 40km from the nearest town of Anuradhapura.

Mahavilachchiya is surrounded on three sides by the Vilpattu jungle, and most of the residents are farmers or labourers with a monthly income of about 5,000-10,000 rupees (US$50-100). While the village is connected to electricity supply, it is not yet covered by either terrestrial or mobile phone networks. The number of phones in the village: zero. The number of PCs in the village: 50 and rising.

Given the absence of telecommunications infrastructure and the scattered nature of the settlement, a more traditional wired network was not practical in technical terms, nor economically feasible. But thanks to the efforts of a charity, the Horizon Lanka Foundation, and the Information and Communication Technology Agency of Sri Lanka (ICTA), a workable solution has been found. Most of the computers are situated in the homes of local children, and as many as 200 use the machines for their studies, to access the Internet, and to send emails. Given a set of headphones, internet telephony is also possible. The computers are linked to a multimedia lab, which provides training and resources.

Projects like these, however, are not crimping growth in Sri Lanka’s telecom sector which soared to 7.3m users in 2006, led by a 59% rise in new mobile phone connections. Growth was spurred by competition from new market players and call rate cuts of as much as 40%, the Sri Lanka Telecommunications Regulatory Commission says. Although the waiting list for fixed-line phone services remains long – 366,000 at last count – fixed-line subscribers rose to 1.9m in 2006 from 1.2m a year earlier, after the Commission granted CDMA licenses to three firms, allowing them to use the cheaper technology to expand their offerings outside the main centres.

But it is cellular services, based on both GSM and CDMA technology, which have enabled many rural residents to get phones. The number of cellular phone users grew to 5.4m by the end of 2006, from 3.4m a in 2005. Liberalisation of the sector is hitting its mark and it’s an ongoing process. India’s largest private phone company, Bharti Airtel, is set to become the fifth mobile phone player in Sri Lanka, launching services by the end of 2007. Bharti plans to invest US$100m in the first year of operation, so the number of those without access to a phone can only keep falling.

As competition increases, rates will need to continue to fall, otherwise service providers will find more and more of their customers deserting them for internet telephony and tricks like ring cutting.

SOURCE: INDUSTRY BRIEFING

Read article on Global Technology Forum

According to the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, bandwidth owned by various gateway service providers such as VSNL, Reliance Communication and Bharti has gone up to 12.7 Giga bytes in March 2006 compared to 6.5 Giga bytes at the end of the previous financial year.

Explaining the growth, Mr Kiran Karnik, President, Nasscom, said: “Bandwidth requirement is largely being driven by the IT industry, particularly the BPO sector, and also rapid Internet adoption at homes. In addition, it is being fuelled by requirements of a growing economy. Everything is moving towards data and companies that are not IT organisations but are purely into exports, also need to rely on electronic invoices rather than physical invoices, when trading with overseas firms. Moreover, exporters now have the option to send pictures of the sample product (item to be exported) to their overseas clients. Today’s bandwidth needs also revolve around International Trade. The cost of laying fibre has come down due to technology. There is a strong demand story from India.”

Broadband

The Internet Service Providers Association of India (ISPAI) pointed out that the dial-up Internet users have grown by 24 per cent to touch 6.9 million users, however, the growth in broadband services is the real driver for the increase in international bandwidth.

“Broadband needs more capacity than a dial-up service. Broadband services have grown by over 600 per cent with 1.5 million subscribers compared to a few thousand in 2005. That apart usage of Internet services such as leased lines and Net telephony has also increased considerably,” the ISPAI said.

Internet Telephony has crossed a billion minutes during the fourth quarter of 2005-06 compared to 58 million minutes in the previous quarter.

All of the voice calls on the Internet are international calls. Adding to the bandwidth consumption is the leased line Internet services such as Virtual Private Services.

The number of leased line connections has increased to nearly 15,500 compared to 12,200 last year.

http://www.blonnet.com/2006/07/14/stories/2006071402630400.htm