The IDI is a composite of three sub-indexes. South Asia has done well in access, with rankings increasing in all countries, except for the Maldives. India jumps seven places. The only countries that do well in the use sub-index are Sri Lanka (advance of 10 places) and Nepal (nine places). Pakistan and the Maldives fall back 13 places. Only Bhutan and the Maldives advance three and two places respectively in the skills sub-index. Sri Lanka and Bangladesh fall back one place, while all others hold their places.

What the above illustrates is that one cannot move ahead in the overall rankings simply by improving one dimension or one sub-index. For example, Bhutan advanced by four places in access, by three in use, and by three in skills. This translated into an overall advance of four places for Bhutan. Sri Lanka advanced by 10 places in use, but this appeared to be negated by a one-place retreat in the skills component and a lower-than-most advance of two places in access.

The Maldives increased by the most (0.51), yet dropped a rank position, indicating that the countries in the range where the Maldives is located is highly competitive. The least increase shown by Bangladesh (0.21) resulted in a slippage of one position in the rankings.

Vietnam, a high performer on all composite ICT rankings, has leaped forward from 91st place to 81st place, in a rare 10-place advance.

In South Asia, Bhutan advanced four places to 119th; Nepal by three places to 134th; and India and Sri Lanka advance by one place to 116th and 105th respectively. Pakistan and Bangladesh drop two places each to 123rd and 137th, respectively. Maldives, the leader among the South Asian countries, drops one place to settle at 67th place.

Thailand drops nine places to 89th, something that should cause concern. Philippines advances by 3 places to 92nd rank and Indonesia by one place to 101st.

The overall winner remains Korea (no change from 2008). Hong Kong SAR is at 6th place (same as in 2008). The gap with Singapore has widened, with Singapore falling back to 19th place from 15th in 2008.

The general lesson is that one must run fast even to maintain one’s rank. Singapore’s score improved from 6.71 to 7.08, but it still fell back four places.

The technology is also being tested in a very different part of the world in which disaster may strike with very little warning: Israel. EViglio is working on an SMS-CB system that will warn residents of incoming rockets within seconds after they have been fired. Testing of the system will begin in June 2011.

Cell broadcast systems are also being tested or deployed in a number of other locations around the world. The Maldives, a collection of low-lying islands in the Indian Ocean with nearly 300,000 inhabitants, will be rolling out an SMS-CB system to warn of “tsunamis, earthquakes, flash floods, tidal waves, thunderstorms, tornadoes and waterspouts, strong winds, and drought.” The Netherlands and parts of the U.S. including Florida and other gulf coast states, New York City, and Houston are also working on their own systems, according to U.S. firm CellCast technologies.

This technology does have some obvious disadvantages — for one, not everyone carries their cell phones on them at all times. Compared to other solutions, however, it could prove useful: sirens can’t convey information with anything close to the specificity of a text message, and television and radio can only push messages when they’re in use.

E-Channelling has entered into an agreement with Wataniya Telecom Maldives, owned by Qatar Telecom (QTel) as part of its global expansion programme, it said. The deal is to provide software services to automate medical ‘channelling’ services in the Maldives and is E-Channelling’s first international project.

“QTel has given an undertaking that after completion of the project in the Maldives they would look into replicating the software solutions in all other 17 countries jointly with ECL,” the statement said.

The four-phase project will first make available ‘e-channeling’ services to Maldivians to consult Sri Lankan doctors and get health check-ups and other medical services in 25 partner hospitals in Sri Lanka.

It will also make available e-channelling software to consult Maldivian doctors in Maldivian hospitals and medical centres.

The full report on LBO.

In a previous essay, Heeks interrogated the numbers emanating from the ITU on “mobile subscriptions.” It is a pity the same was not done in the recent piece on Internet and broadband.

For example, the ITU reports that Afghanistan had 2,000 Internet subscriptions and 1,000,000 Internet users, indicating the use of a multiplier of 500. In other words, the Afghan administration is asking us to believe that each Internet connection is used by 500 people, in addition to asking us to accept nice round numbers on the subscriptions indicator.

This illustrates the biggest weakness of the ITU’s definition of an Internet User: each national administration is allowed to use a multiplier of its choice to derive the number of Internet users from the number of Internet subscribers, in the absence of demand-side surveys, the first-best way of obtaining the indicator. No low-income countries have reported demand-side survey results. Therefore, the Internet user numbers reported by the ITU are tainted by the use of arbitrary multipliers such as the 500 used by Afghanistan (this is the most outrageous multiplier we found; most are more reasonable). But the point is that it is wrong to permit national administrations which may have incentives to look good in terms of Internet connectivity to use multipliers without any rational basis. LIRNEasia is in the process of developing a practical solution to the problem of the multiplier that will be published shortly.

The Internet User number is further flawed by definitional and reporting weaknesses in the base indicator of Internet Subscriptions.

Total Internet users = Multiplier * Total Internet subscriptions
Total Internet subscriptions =Total fixed subscriptions + Total wireless broadband subscriptions

According to the recently revised World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Definitions (2010) the definitions of these terms are below.
Total fixed (wired) Internet subscriptions = total number of Internet subscriptions with fixed (wired) Internet access, which includes dial-up and total fixed (wired) broadband subscriptions.
Total fixed (wired) broadband subscriptions = total number of subscriptions with high-speed access to the public Internet (a TCP/IP connection), at downstream speeds equal to, or greater than, 256 kbit/s.
Total wireless broadband subscriptions = sum of satellite, terrestrial fixed wireless and terrestrial mobile wireless subscriptions.

Surprisingly, even the recently improved ITU definition does not include prepaid mobile broadband subscriptions. Considering the growing number of prepaid mobile data subscriptions, especially in developing countries, this omission alone will yield significantly lower numbers of Internet subscriptions and thereby, total Internet users.

Preliminary investigations showed that in some countries such as the Maldives, even postpaid mobile data connections are not reported by operators to the administrations and therefore do not reach the ITU. In Sri Lanka, all the SIMs provided by a major operator are data-enabled. Therefore, even without a specific data plan, any customer with a data compatible mobile phone can use the Internet. These ad hoc users are not counted as Internet users by mobile operators. Therefore, the number of mobile subscriptions is underreported. As a result, the overall Internet user number is also lower than it should be.

It is necessary, before engaging is sophisticated manipulations of data to assess the quality of the data. The above discussion indicates that the current Internet User figures published by the ITU are seriously flawed because of problems in the formula, the definitions and reporting practices. Not all the problems can be resolved immediately, but they should at least be noted.

For retailers, these games and apps offer a new form of mobile marketing that goes well beyond a minibanner ad by rewarding consumers, individually, for their loyalty. And unlike paper cards, stores can use the data they collect from people’s cellphones to learn more about who their customers are and how they behave.

No one in advertising has ever been able to figure out how to do “one-to-one, real-time marketing,” said Drew Sievers, a former advertising executive who is now co-founder and chief executive of mFoundry. “The mobile phone is where that will actually probably happen. It’s the only thing connected and always with you.”

We are proud of what we have done, but not satisfied. There is more to be done, especially in implementing the findings of the HazInfo project with Sarvodaya. We will. Except for a media awareness event (not held because too many had been held), we delivered on every promise we made on the occasion of the three-month dana (alms giving). The Tsunami Memorial Research Fund has been fully, and productively, expended and closed down.

Five years later, the region is better prepared. We will not let up on the push to reduce risks further. That is the best remembrance of the thousands who died with no official warning.

Natasha Udu-gama, former HazInfo Dissemination Manager and Researcher, presented “Implementing Inclusive ICTs: Mobile Cell Broadcasting for Public Warning and Commercial Use” based on the LIRNEasia study in the Maldives” completed in May 2009. Her presentation was made during the Early Warning and Disaster Communications session on Friday, 6 November. The session was chaired by Mr. Rohit Magotra, COO, Ekgaon Technologies and Mr. RC Bhatia, Former ADG, India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Doenload the presentation and the paper.

There is an assumption that every country should have an IX. Why? Does it not make more sense, for example for the Maldives (pop. 325,000), Sri Lanka (pop. 20 million) and Southern India (maybe around 500 million) why should there not be a common Internet Exchange?

And is there a solution to the unfortunate tendency of IXs to implode?

On the fixed side, assisted by CDMA phones that are counted as fixed, Sri Lanka is the leader (17 connection per 100 people), followed by Maldives (15 per 100).

Like in cricket, the middle of the rankings are the most interesting. Both Pakistan (50/100) and Bhutan (37/100) are ahead of India (29/100) in mobile. This shows that India cannot afford to let up the pace of 10 million connections a month for some time. If it does, it might be overtaken by Afghanistan (29/100) and even Bangladesh (28/100).

Of course, the fact that Afghanistan is ahead of Bangladesh in mobile penetration should cause all sorts of palpitations in government offices in Dhaka. Bangladesh was one of the earliest in South Asia to adopt mobile and is the most densely populated country in the world. How they were overtaken by Afghanistan, a war-torn country with difficult terrain, should cause serious re-examination of policies such as the BDT 800 SIM tax. The fact that Afghanistan’s CAGR for 2003-08 is 109%, higher than Bangladesh’s 2003-08 CAGR of 101%, suggests that the gap between the two countries is more likely to increase than decrease.

In the fixed rankings, we find Afghanistan occupying the cellar (0.37/100 people) behind Bangladesh (0.84/100). Pakistan (2.5/100) is behind Nepal (2.8/100). This is very surprising given the apparent superiority of the Pakistan policy and regulatory framework. Both use CDMA on the fixed access side, so that cannot be the explanation. Comments from Pakistani colleagues would be most welcome.

India is the only country showing negative growth in fixed over the 2003-08 period (-2%), but this simply because India is more honest in its reporting, counting CDMA on the mobile side instead of on the fixed side. For example Sri Lanka is experiencing negative growth in wireline, that is masked by CDMA growth.

From 2003 to 2008, the number of active SIMs has increased by over 12 times, while the number of fixed connections has decreased marginally, the negative growth in India wiping out all the gains in the rest of South Asia. South Asia is clearly the territory of the mobile.

Texting short messages through mobile phones could help in early warning of natural disasters in the Maldives, says a new report.

The technology, called cell broadcasting, helps to deliver messages simultaneously to multiple users in a specified area.

“In the case of the Maldives, if an early warning is introduced, it must be able to reach all of the outlying islands including tourists on resorts. With mobile phones quite ubiquitous, it may be an ideal time to introduce an emerging technology — cell broadcasting — for public early warning,” says the report, ‘Mobile Cell Broadcasting for Commercial Use and Public Warning in the Maldives’, which was published last month (15 July).

The December 2004 tsunami affected many of its islands and wrought considerable devastation to its infrastructure, particularly telecom. Not only did it destroy shelters, but it affected five major nodes, disrupted service to 13 atolls (163 islands), destroyed power systems and batteries, and damaged radio equipment.

Can early warning help save lives? The need for early warning has become greater since the tsunami and the growing threat of the atoll nation receding under a rapidly increasing sea level. These claims are further reinforced by a study conducted by RMSI for UNDP Maldives that “It is estimated that Male will be inundated by 15 per cent by 2025 and 50 per cent by 2100 due to climate change and consequent sea level rise”

“Mobile Cell Broadcasting for Commercial Use and Public Warning in the Maldives”, a report done by LIRNEasia researcher Natasha Udu-gama on the based on her research will be released today to Maldivian policy makers. The report focuses not only on Public Warning but how to make Cell Broadcasting commercially viable. A first at international level this report will be work as a guide for any developing country.

Complete report can be downloaded from here. The PPT presentation made to Maldivian policymakers can be downloaded here.

None of them had the benefit of the teleuse@BOP results. Back in October 2008, 25 percent of mobile owners at the Pakistan BOP had multiple SIMs. Why did they go for multiple SIMs if they had the benefit of MNP? Why do they go through the contortions of switching SIMs, described in the ToI article that quotes our qualitative research, if they have the benefit of MNP? What relevance do issues such as cost of redoing business cards and letterhead have to the 90 percent plus prepaid customers of most mobile operators in the region? Is MNP another concept that makes sense in the postpaid worlds inhabited by Western consultants, but makes no sense at all in the predominantly prepaid worlds we live in?

Good research is supposed to make people rethink what is taken as common wisdom. I also partook in the common wisdom on MNP. But questions such as the above have started a rethinking process, caught (bad spelling and all) by a journalist who called to ask about something else:

Mobile Number Portability (MNP) is increasingly becoming useless in the current Sri Lankan context, a telecom industry expert in the country said.

“I don’t see a need for number portability because most of the mobile phone users currently are using multiple sim cards” Professor Rohan Smarajeewa, Executive Director of Lirneasia told The Nation Economist.
As he pointed out, the price war among the telcos during the last year or so has created this situation.
“After the entrance of Bharti Airtel to the local market as the fifth mobile operator 25 to 30 % of mobile users became multiple sim card users” Samarajeewa added.

According to telecom analysts the arrival of dual sim card handsets also has contributed towards this.
“There are dual sim handsets in the local market made in China at amasingly low prices. These handsets have become very handy for multiple sim card users” an analyst said.

He also said that the ample availability of pre-paid sim cards throughout the country, hassle free connection and amasingly cheap tariffs by all the five mobile operators within each ones network have given the incentive for people to buy more than one sim card.

CB [cell broadcasting] is an intrinsic feature of GSM, UMTS and IS 95 CDMA networks, and is thus available in the two Maldivian networks. But it must be activated. Most handsets are capable of receiving CB messages but the feature must be turned on. However, in the early stages, getting customers to turn on the feature could be an effective way of educating them of mobile-based public warning.

Following stakeholder meetings that included sharing of information on the ongoing CB channel-standardization work of Study Group 2 of the Telecommunication Bureau of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU-T) and experience in attempting to use CB for public warning in Sri Lanka, the recommendations to TAM are being finalized. They include the constitution of a “trust protocol board” to develop the terms of access to the CB broker server to ensure security and the conduct of live demonstrations on a test channel that will not be seen by the public. The latter is likely to bring up technical issues that require resolution before full-scale implementation.

Above is a quotation from a box on pp. 29-30 of the 2009 World Disasters Report, published by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, titled “Focus on early warning, early action.” The box, written by Rohan Samarajiva, addresses one of the most difficult problems of public warning, that of ensuring that warnings reach not only the citizens but tourists, which, at peak amount to 1/5th of the population of the Maldives.

The work was carried out at the request of the Communications Authority of the Maldives under our ongoing Mobile 2.0 research program. It is expected that the report, prepared by Natasha Udu-gama, will be released next month.

The IFRC report quotes extensively from LIRNEasia research and publications, in addition to the inclusion of the box.

The Civil Aviation Minister Jameel who announced that the bill was being sent for legal review at a press conference said that the country is now at a stage where such legislation is urgently required. The bill covers all aspects of postal services, telecommunications and info communications including licensing, establishing standards and implementation.

The Minister also stated that the government will establish a Communications Authority of Maldives for the purposes of regulating and implementing the Communications Act.