The session was, unusually for a North American event, highly international. Judith Mariscal of Mexico (and our sister organization DIRSI) chaired. Carleen Maitland of the US National Science Foundation talked about the importance of fiber for national research and education networks in Africa. Roxana Barrentes of DIRSI presented evidence on the marginal relevance of fiber for general broadband access in Latin America. Christoph Stork of RIA, our sister organization in Africa, made a data rich presentation on the current situation and future prospects for broadband in the African countries studied by RIA. When huge percentages of households lack electricity, there is not much to be said for laying fiber to homes!

In conditions of market-driven ICT rollout, I see little value in getting excited about the technology used by suppliers of last-mile access. My presentation presented data from S Korea, Hong Kong China and Sri Lanka. In the case of Korea and Hong Kong, the end results are about the same. The public funds spent are extraordinarily different. Korea is a poster child for spending with little regard for benefits. If countries have that kind of money and time (Korea has been working on broadband since the 1980s, even before the term was invented!), they should try to emulate Korea.

But Sri Lanka is more like the resource and capacity constrained countries that LIRNEasia and its sister organizations serve. Even with the most generous assumptions we’d be lucky to connect 18% of households to ADSL. What are the chances of laying fiber to all the households?

What we need to do is to push the fiber out as close as possible to human settlements; and create the market conditions for multiple access providers to connect people to the services they need using whatever technology that makes business sense. It will probably make sense to connect universities (Carleen’s clients) and businesses using fiber. But for the rest of us it will be wireless.

presentation.

The reason I saw this book is because they had cited what I had written, based on synthesizing the research from the Mobile More than Voice work we did in 2008-10. But our work is cited, not engaged with. Yes, it is problematic to access the Internet on feature phones over wireless platforms. But more problematic is how one gets millions of households connected to 5MB FTTP pipes of their dreams, when even connecting copper was an impossible dream.

No one believed that operators could make money at ARPUs of less that USD 5. But it happened because new business models were implemented and costs per unit came down to levels hitherto unthinkable. This is how wireless broadband will work. The sooner we stop talking about castles in the air, the sooner the day will come when all who want to use broadband will be able to.

Since the Australians started throwing money at broadband, the issue of governments subsidizing broadband access has come to the fore. Beyond that, the debate has tended to focus also on download speed (one dimension of broadband performance) and on fiber. Robert and Charles Kenny have entered the fray with a well-argued case against massive subsidies for FTTH.

What I found interesting in what is essentially a “foreign” debate was the following:

Unlike previous investments to enable internet access (dial-up and DSL) it involves a major rebuild, not simply an upgrade at the edges. And the benefits in terms of new applications provided by superfast over standard broadband look limited on close examination. In particular, the argument for a market failure based around network effects or the need to provide access to vital services is weak when applied to superfast broadband. All of this suggests that governments should think very hard before spending billions of taxpayer dollars in a race to the top of the superfast broadband league table.

What a lot of people do not appreciate is that wireguided broadband necessarily requires nationwide rebuild in developing countries. When the developed world got into broadband, they had wireguides (copper pair put in for voice telephony and coax put in for cable TV) in place; all that was required was an incremental investment. But in most developing countries, the wireguides are not in place. Broadband over wire means that a complete rebuild is required. This then makes Kenny and Kenny required reading for those who still dream of FTTH in Bhutan and Mongolia.

The fourth myth is that “the Internet is becoming a wireless internet”, to quote Malcolm Turnbull, who appeared on the program with his nifty little wireless tablet computer.

The claim is disingenuous, and Turnbull, of all people, knows the limits of wireless technology. Bandwidth is limited, and what works today for a few users will become the Internet equivalent of road gridlock in just a few years. Even now the wireless spectrum is getting crowded, and the up-and-coming 4G network will provide no more than a stopgap improvement.

The future will almost certainly see more wireless devices, but these will be on short tethers generally within homes and other buildings; the domestic wireless LAN with a range of 10 or 20 metres is the model and these need the support of widely distributed fibre.

Traditionally, most systems that monitor structures’ responses to earthquakes or strong winds have been wired ones. But wireless alerts may one day be an alternative.

“Wired monitoring systems are expensive,” said Dr. Jerome P. Lynch, director of the Laboratory for Intelligent Structural Technology and an associate professor at the University of Michigan. “You have to route kilometers of wire for power and data.”

The wireless systems may also be attractive because of their sophisticated power-management software, which improves battery performance, he said. Sensors can also extend battery life by harvesting power from the sun and the wind — and even from vibrations.

The Jindo Bridge network has 663 wireless sensors, each providing a channel of information at an installation cost of about $100, far less than the thousands of dollars typically needed to install each wired channel, said Dr. B.F. Spencer Jr., a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Dr. Spencer directs the American-based arm of the bridge project, which also includes the University of Tokyo and the Korean Advanced Institute of Science and Technology. Batteries on the bridge network are expected to last about three years before they need replacement.

Mark Sinclair, an engineer at Degenkolb Engineers in San Francisco who has worked on several wired monitoring systems in buildings, said the wireless systems could find some use after an earthquake, for example, to confirm a lack of damage to a structure.

But Mr. Sinclair is skeptical of their general deployment for alerts. Unlike their wired counterparts, “wireless systems don’t have a proven track record yet,” he said.

“I don’t know about your wireless signal,” he said, referring to telephone service, “but mine is chronically unreliable.”

The Jindo network has built-in features to provide backup, Dr. Spencer said. “We’ve developed reliable algorithms to make sure we get the data we need from the sensors,” he said. “We store the data locally. If wireless data is interrupted, we can resend it.”

“It’s about connecting every corner of America to the digital age,” the president said. “It’s about a rural community in Iowa or Alabama where farmers can monitor weather across the state and markets across the globe. It’s about an entrepreneur on Main Street with a great idea she hopes to sell to the big city. It’s about every young person who no longer has to leave his hometown to seek new opportunity — because opportunity is right there at his or her fingertips.”

In his State of the Union address last month, Mr. Obama called for securing high-speed wireless coverage to 98 percent of all Americans within five years. On Thursday, the White House released details of how he would spend billions of dollars for the plan, which also includes a high-tech wireless public safety system that would tie cities and towns together in the event of a national emergency like the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

Under Mr. Obama’s proposal, which the White House maintains would also raise enough revenue to cut the deficit by $9.6 billion over the next decade, the government would nearly double the wireless spectrum available for mobile broadband. That would be achieved in part through “voluntary incentive auctions” in which broadcasters, who license the spectrum through the Federal Communications Commission, would release some of it back to the government, which would in turn sell it to wireless companies.

The administration calculates that the auctions, coupled with more efficient government use of the spectrum, would raise $27.8 billion in revenue over the next decade. But that figure depends on whether broadcasters cooperate, and it is difficult to know whether the administration’s calculations are correct.

Within the next five years, we’ll make it possible for businesses to deploy the next generation of high-speed wireless coverage to 98 percent of all Americans. This isn’t just about — (applause) — this isn’t about faster Internet or fewer dropped calls. It’s about connecting every part of America to the digital age. It’s about a rural community in Iowa or Alabama where farmers and small business owners will be able to sell their products all over the world. It’s about a firefighter who can download the design of a burning building onto a handheld device; a student who can take classes with a digital textbook; or a patient who can have face-to-face video chats with her doctor.

The fact that the rules received support — even the lukewarm kind — from big businesses should worry consumers, some public interest groups said Tuesday.

“There is a reason that so many giant phone and cable companies are happy, and we are not. These rules are riddled with loopholes,” Andrew Jay Schwartzman, the policy director for the nonprofit Media Access Project, said in one representative statement. “They foreshadow years of uncertainty and regulatory confusion, which those carriers will use to their advantage.”

Wireless rules are different; we have always claimed they should be.

Other groups warned that the rules would smooth the way for fast and slow lanes on the Internet. They objected especially loudly to the looser rules for wireless devices, which are becoming important on-ramps to the Internet.

But wireless was treated differently, Mr. Genachowski said, because it has “unique technical issues” and is at a more nascent stage of growth. He added, “Any reduction in Internet openness would be a cause for concern, as would any reduction in innovation and investment in mobile broadband applications, devices or networks that depend on Internet openness.”

While wireless carriers will be able to block various apps and services, they won’t be able to block basic Web sites or any apps that compete with their own voice and video products. That represents a win for Skype, the Internet phone service, which praised the F.C.C. rules on Tuesday.

Anyway, our reading is that more people will get connected to the Internet through wireless than wire. We need millions connected, not lakhs, as now. But we are happy SLT’s day is saved by broadband. We hope they take a moment to thank the people who pushed for this service to be offered over the tired ISDN option back in 2002-03. Full story on LBO.

Sri Lanka Telecom, the island’s largest fixed access provider said fixed broadband user grew 40 percent to over 200,000 from by the September 2010 quarter from a year earlier.

SLT, a majority state-controlled firm which is 44 percent by Malaysia’s UT group has Sri Lanka only wireline network.
SLT said fixedwire line users grew by 20,000 due to strong demand for (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) data connections, the telco said in a statement.

According to central bank data there were 869,160 wireline users by end September 2009. By the second quarter of 2010 it had risen to 879,690

Basic copper and cable internet access cannot run faster than about 5 megabits per second, which is just about fast enough to watch something on YouTube or for a video chat over Skype. But networks seldom run as fast as advertised. The cable networks upgraded with fibre can run at speeds in the hundreds of megabits per second, enough to handle most present-day applications and many in the immediate future, like high-definition video. Yet Verizon’s network could leave these in the dust. In tests in Massachusetts its fibre network has run as fast as 10,000 megabits per second, and it could go faster.

This puts Verizon in a tricky position. Its old copper network, still 40% of its customer base, is not fast enough but FiOS is faster than most consumers need. So the company is having to weather the transition to a time when faster networks become more important. On October 22nd Verizon said that its overall revenue, at $26.5 billion in the third quarter, was 2.9% down on the same period a year ago. Its mobile-phone division performed strongly, with revenue rising by 6%, to $16.3 billion. But its wireline business remained under pressure: revenue fell by 3.6% in the period and operating profit slumped by 90%.

75% of passenger transport is via public transport and of that 93% by bus and 7% by train. Roughly 5500 SLCTB and 18000 private buses. The fare is regulated by National Transport Commission (NTC). They also have timetables which are n0t implemented.

Shortest distance (~2KM) LKR 6:00.

Longest distance 260 KM – LKR 655.00.

Most of the BOP uses bus transport. 36% of the BOP use mobile and fixed phones.

SLTB buses use both ticket books and manual ticket machines to issue tickets to commuters

Private buses primarily use digital ticketing machines that prints out tickets. Can store data, process memory. Can even tell you how may people have to get off at the next bus stop.  The one in use now is also lighter in weight.

These are mainly used in the Western Province and on a few inter provincial buses.  Manual ticket machines are used in other areas.

Issues with the current ticketting system:

Money lost in Transit. Bus conductors and Drivers take the money, or tickets are not issued, or passengers do not buy the tickets. CTB estimates a 15% loss of revenue and private bus owners 25%.

Chanuka: How is the estimates done?

RS: through Load share.

HdS: Bus owners want to reduce leakage.  They wold like to issue a e-bus tickets. So the solution is either a card system or a mobile. So from the suply side there is a need but what about the demand side?

A  simple survey was done at the Fort railway station. Not a Sample survey but to get an idea. 2/3: 1/3 male: female. There maybe selection bias as it is a starting point.

What is the real cost of a ticket? Do the passengers receive the balance after getting a ticket? only 5% said that they always get there balance. Most people carry exact change. And only 50% of the people receive a bus ticket. Ticket checkers are used both in public and private sector. Some private companies have their own people to check for tickets.

So because of these issues, there is a need.

Possible benefits of e-tickets:

For Bus operators

• reduce leakage
• Offer loyalty plans etc.

For Commuters

• Cost only actual fare
• Can better schedule travel; save on transport expenditure

State [local government]

• Tax collection
• Target subsidies

What are the options?

Contactless smart cards: Oyster, ez link. Delhi is running a pilot, minimum reload INR 25.

Mobile phones: either through SMS or Near field Communication (NFC) merging mobile phones with a contactless smart card (Innovation).

NFC mobile phones: Nokia introduced the first in 2005 (3220). Break through innovation is instead of a NFC  phone, what about an NFC SIM. China Telecom has come p with a NON NFC standard RF SIM.  Nokia 6216: First NFC standard SIM compatible. Operator can load application.

Japan is leader with NTT DoComo Osaifu-Keitai e-wallet phones. Spain, Netherlands, France and Germany, mobile bus and rail ticket system are being piloted.  China has started.  UK to start by 2015 and fully switch to NFC by 2020.

There aren’t a lot of details yet on how that $6 billion would be given out, but it doesn’t seem to encompass the tax breaks phone and cable companies were lobbying for. Even so, the wireless industry was cheering Thursday morning because a summary of the spending released by House Democrats calls for the money to be used on “broadband and wireless grants.”

Wireless companies were concerned that the money would be earmarked for cable and phone companies providing fiber to the home.

On Wednesday, an Obama adviser who’s been in charge of the broadband stimulus package indicated that industry and tech expectations about the broadband part of the package had gotten a bit out of control.

“The broadband piece of the Obama agenda is not going to be done solely in the economic recovery package,” said Blair Levin, a telecom analyst and former FCC chief of staff who’s been advising the campaign on how to structure its broadband plan. He was speaking at a tech conference on Capitol Hill.

Read the full article in Wall Street Journal here.

Net profit has surged 86% to Rs 1,305 crore (USD 330 mil) year-on-year backed by 30% rise in sales to Rs 4,579 crore (USD 1,166 mil). Operating profit has grown 46% while revenue from wireless business grew 45% and the broadband segment 61%. 

Read the full story in ‘The Economic Times’

Meanwhile India’s largest wireless operator Bharti Airtel on Wednesday announced a 73% increase in second quarter net profit at Rs 1,617 crore (USD 412 mil) , compared to Rs 934 crore (USD 238 mil) for the quarter ended September 2006.

The addition of a record number of users and expansion to remote areas boosted the company’s revenue by 45% to Rs 6,337 crore (USD 1,614 mil), as against Rs 4,357 crore (USD 1,108 mil) in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Read the full story in ‘The Economic Times’

The TRAI also pushed for the relaxation of stringent merger and acquisitions norms, technology neutrality for telecom licences, in addition to suggesting that both GSM and CDMA players pay an entry fee and higher spectrum fee additional 2G radio frequency allocation.  

TRAI has called for the setting up of a multi-disciplinary committee consisting of representatives from the department of telecom, the Telecom Engineering Centre, the telecom regulator, the wireless planning and co-ordination wing and operators’ associations be set up to frame the new spectrum allocation criteria, different from the subscriber base-linked policy followed currently. Read more.