Scientist who foretold the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami warns of possibility of another in Northern Bay of Bengal

Posted on September 9, 2007  /  1 Comments

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Tsunami concern for Bay of Bengal

Now, Phil Cummins, lead author on the Nature paper and a geologist at Geoscience Australia, believes this is not the case.He said: “I reviewed the geological literature and found the evidence for a lack of tectonic activity along the Myanmar coast was not compelling.”

Historical evidence

Recent GPS data, he said, suggested that the plate boundary was at sea in this area, hidden below thick layers of sediment.

Dr Cummins added: “Although these GPS measurements are sparse, these show that there is active deformation near the Myanmar coast that is consistent with a locked thrust-fault offshore, which is the type needed to generate tsunami.”

Computer simulation of tsunami
A computer simulation shows the havoc a tsunami could wreak
The geologist also looked at accounts of an earthquake that occurred in the area in 1762, which wrenched up parts of the coast by between 3-7m.

His computer simulation of the quake, which he believes would have measured magnitude 8.8, showed that a similar event today would have significant impacts.

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1 Comment

  1. Dr. Phil Cummings’ idea is impressive, and reliable with old literature. However, the article contains no original data, that meant no own scientific work on Myanmar’s tectonics. We wish him to do more field and(or) remote-sensing or other work, collaboration with local scientists.