Cisco predicts that tablets, smartphones, etc will contribute more than half the IP traffic, up from today’s 33 percent. For the first time in the history of the internet, mobile and portable devices will generate more than half of global IP traffic by 2018. That’s one of the headline findings of Cisco’s latest Visual Networking Index (VNI), which forecasts global IP traffic for fixed and mobile connections between 2013 and 2018. Cisco finds 33 per cent of all IP traffic originated with non-PC devices in 2013. By 2018, however, that figure shoots up to 57 per cent.
When talking about the preconditions for the success of the Internet, I have talked about the need to develop an an ecosystem, with trust as one element. These issues were also explored in the work on e commerce. The Chinese solution to the problem of trust in virtual transactions is quite interesting. Almost makes one wish we had enough time to monitor Chinese developments in Chinese. The ubiquity of counterfeits points to a serious problem in China today: an absence of good faith.
The policy statement of the new government headed by Narendra Modi promises to continue the NOFN initiative. It makes specific mention of the use of social media for more closely engaging the people. 22. E-governance brings empowerment, equity and efficiency. It has the power to transform peoples’ lives.
Today’s LBO Choices column was the second to be based on LIRNEasia’s 2012-14 inclusive information society research. The basic idea was to see how ICTs could be used to improve the customer experience in important government or government-sanctioned service delivery activities. Other questions included what lessons could be learned from the mobile success story for other government services. When LIRNEasia conducted quantitative and qualitative research on poor micro entrepreneurs in Colombo and secondary cities in Wayamba, it was clear that there was significant interest in managing their energy bills. Sixty one percent had already changed to energy-efficient lighting; over 15 percent were switching off/disconnecting appliance and lights.
LIRNEasia CEO Helani Galpaya recently made a presentation on the use of mobile phones by low-income micro-entrepreneurs in selected cities in Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh at the International Conference on Mobile Business 2014 held in London on the 4-5 June 2014. The presentation was based on a paper by Shazna Zuhyle and Roshanthi Lucas Gunaratne. The research was carried out in selected cities in Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh where supply-side and demand side studies (quantitative survey and a qualitative study) were carried out. The sample of low-income micro-entrepreneurs was selected from urban locations (based on the definition of the respective National Statistic Offices) with 0-9 employees. Framed on LIRNEasia research, it is a descriptive paper of the study that provides recommendations to bridge the gap in service delivery to the under-served population.
“Sadly, role of think tanks has not increased to provide critical inputs to policy making. Universities must also play a big role in this.” This was a tweet from @narendramodi It’s refreshing to get tweets of substance from the leader of the largest democracy. But let’s unpack the tweet. [Knowledge] inputs are critical to [effective] policy making.
The prospects of breakthrough changes in electricity dominated a number of my recent conversations. Could be because we were disseminating our 2012-14 research results to electricity audiences, or because we just finished teaching an introductory course on electricity regulation. But, it’s also possible that the prospects of a step change are imminent, driven by the increasing demand for reliable, universal electricity access by the neo middle classes (to use the terminology of the victorious BJP), and also the technological possibilities opened up by the application of ICTs to electricity networks. But is the development community beginning to look at electricity? One indicator is that electricity papers are being read at ICT4D conferences.
The rise of social media hammered the readership of our blog. So there have been times when I have wondered whether it’s worth the time and effort. Today is not one such day. I was reading the Reforms Chapter of the recently released Annual Report 2013 of the Sri Lanka Ministry of Finance and Planning, when my eyes were snagged by somewhat familiar language: Although Sri Lanka and India have dropped in their rankings: Sri Lanka from 69th place to 76th, a fall of seven places, being overtaken by countries such as South Africa, Indonesia and Thailand: India has dropped from 68th to 83rd place. Philippines, which is a BPO powerhouse has advanced from 86th place to 78th, ahead of India, but behind Sri Lanka.
As far we knew, this number is collected on the basis of demand-side surveys. When such surveys were not available, “administrations” (Ministries or Regulatory Agencies tasked with the job) would submit estimates, based the number of subscriber and a multiplier. We’ve spent untold hours on the phone, trying to wheedle these numbers out. We even published a peer-reviewed article proposing an alternative (and, in our opinion, superior) method. But little did we (and the peer reviewers, and those collating the data at the ITU) know.
There is value in having deep pockets. My information gives August 4th as the formal launch date of Ooredoo Myanmar. We’ve done qualitative interviews in the Yangon-Nay Pyi Taw-Mandalay triangle where all companies will concentrate their early efforts. Looking forward to completing the analysis and getting the results out. Ooredoo Myanmar has announced it will make mobile phone and internet services available to 30 percent of Burma’s population sometime between July and September this year.
Two years ago, with the help of Haymar Win Tun I published in a Myanmar newspaper a piece entitled “Myanmar is last in the world in telecoms: What can be done.” It was to be published in Bamar as well, but some sad events stopped that from happening. I was happy to see a key concept in that article, that of the “late-starter advantage,” has got legs. Myanmar’s dynamic and understudied market provides a singular chance to observe the “last-mover advantage” as it unfolds. Although Myanmar’s greenfield telecom market holds huge potential, opportunities must be viewed in light of real challenges, including lack of physical supporting infrastructure,poverty, human and institutional capacity and ongoing ethnic tensions.
From late April to today, we were engaged in a major push on getting the findings of how ICTs could help improve electricity customer relations out to regulators and other stakeholders in Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka. This is not as simple as telecom which is a central subject in all countries. In India, we (and our partners) succeeded in attracting regulators from three important states (Bihar, Gujarat and Maharashtra) to the half-day dissemination event. In Bangladesh, the Chair of the Bangladesh Electricity Regulatory Commission chaired the event and was present throughout. Today, we had a three hour exchange of ideas with the Director General and senior staff of the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka.
We don’t really have a formal position. But we collect data on gender and country representation, among other things, in all the training events we run and report them. From the time I used to be involved in admitting students to graduate studies, I’ve had to think about and act on issues of gender and ethnic balance. I’ve never been for quotas; but have always been committed to affirmative action. And I believe I was responsible for admitting some of the most diverse classes of grad students to my School.
It was not the best time to disseminate research results in New Delhi, with the news media preoccupied with the accession of power by the new government. But, as Helani Galpaya said in her introductory comments at the media event, one has to get back to governance at some point. The first news report that resulted highlights the potential of using the ubiquitous mobile phones to improve communication between electricity discoms and their customers. The headline referred to the value of transferring lessons from mobile to electricity, for example by offering prepaid service to those who could not meet the current criteria for connections. The body is meeting state-level energy regulators from Bihar, Gujarat and Maharashtra to discuss the findings of the survey, which covered 1,279 people in India (Delhi and Patna).
How can the ubiquitous mobile phone improve the lives of the poor? How can the phone become more like the “Aladdin’s Lamp” that Muhammed Yunus talks about, something that can offer any service its owner wants? If the phone is to be about more than just talk, we have to put some effort into adding to the services offered over it. The 2012-14 LIRNEasia research program funded by IDRC focuses on these questions. One thing we discovered in our research was that people need to manage the inevitable power outages.
Increasingly, we are beginning to hit the wall with respect to Internet use because of constraints that involve people. We lack users with the skills necessary to use full potential of the Internet. We lack the innovative entrepreneurs who could develop the content and apps that would attract more of our people to the Internet. The problem is illustrated by the puzzle of Sri Lanka’s low Internet user population (25 percent) and low use of Internet from the home (11 percent of households) despite the country offering the lowest broadband prices in the world. At these prices adoption should be rocket-like.