LINK Public Policy Research Paper No. 8 January 2007 (pre-publication) Steve Esselaar & Alison Gillwald Despite the continued overall growth of the telecommunications sector in South Africa, the full potential of ICT to contribute to the growth and development of the country is not being realised. The fourth South African ICT Sector Performance Review (SPR) seeks to measure and assess some of the recent market developments in South Africa against national policy objectives such as access to services, cost of usage and competitiveness. The full report can be downloaded in pdf format here: 2006 South African ICT SPR
The World Dialogue on Regulation (WDR) Expert Forum on Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Sector and Regulatory Performance Indicators will be held from March 2-3, 2007 at the Changi Village Hotel, Singapore. The event is organized by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS), in partnership with LIRNEasia and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) of Canada. The forum will bring together National Regulatory Agencies (NRAs), National Statistical Organizations (NSOs) and leading operators from the SAARC and ASEAN countries, and will focus on assessing telecommunications regulatory performance and establishing a sustainable system for measuring and benchmarking ICT sector indicators in developing Asia. For more information about this event, email asia@lirne.net
Hutchison exits India and Vodafone enters. Will this accelerate Indian mobile growth to Indonesia and Pakistan levels? No clear evidence of increased investment; new pricing strategies, etc. yet. BBC NEWS | Business | Vodafone buys Indian mobile firm Vodafone has bought a controlling stake in Indian mobile phone firm Hutchison Essar for $11.
Applications for the 8th South Asian Forum for Infrastructure Regulation (SAFIR) Core Course on Infrastructure Regulation have been opened. The course will take place from 1st – 8th April 2007, at Mahaweli Reach Hotel, Kandy, Sri Lanka. The residential program offers participants the opportunity to learn the fundamentals of regulations pertaining to infrastructure industries and regulatory economics as well as topical issues attendant to those industries, to share their experiences, to develop practical solutions to regional problems. While theory and principles covered are applicable across most infrastructure sectors, special attention will be placed on the following 4: Electricity, Transport, Telecom and Pipeline Industries (water, oil, gas) Organized by LIRNEasia, the course maintains the tradition of teaching excellence which is a hall mark of the annual SAFIR Core Course. More information on registration and discounts for bulk registrations can be found here
LIRNEasia intended the Telecom Regulatory Environment scores to serve as a diagnostic instrument for regulators, policy makers and stakeholders, not exactly a “league table.” However, the news value seems to be in the inter-country comparisons. We are grateful for whatever coverage we get. Businessworld: Pak Betters India The sharp growth in the Indian telecom industry has been talked about for quite sometime. That growth happened after many contentious issues got straightened out over the years at the regulatory level.
With the current growth rate of mobile subscriptions, India is the clear global leader in mobile net additions, but its broadband sector still has not met market expectations. Due to poor fixed line coverage, low PC adoption, and service pricing, broadband service has not been embraced by Indians in the way mobile phones were. However, the ministry of communications and operators intend to change that by labeling 2007 the “Broadband Year,” hoping to reach a 20m broadband subscribers by 2010. With the help of telecom and PC manufacturers and operators’ deep pockets, the government believes their goal can be achieved. Pyramid Research argues that the country’s broadband aspirations will not be achieved for 2007, however it will exceed its 2011 target.
The Ugandan government gave full power to the country’s telecoms regulator, the Ugandan Communications Commission (UCC), to liberalize the infrastructure sector in October 2006. Earlier in the year, the Ministry published guidelines defining the opening up of services to full competition. This was a result of the end of the five-year exclusivity period of the National Telecom Operators (NTO)—MTN Uganda and Uganda Telecom, and Cellular Telecom Operator (CTO)—Celtel Uganda. With this new market structure, the Ugandan telecoms is set to become even more attractive as infrastructure rollout increases, new services and applications are deployed, and customers’ needs are meet in the greater context of convergence. In our view, despite current and upcoming challenges, Uganda is well positioned to become a very competitive and vibrant telecoms market and this can already be seen in the moves of South Africa’s giants MTN and Telkom SA which have either increased their stakes in the country or are seeking to make a push into Uganda.
With new acronyms (NGN) being introduced instead of better service (ADSL that actually gives the 2 mbps or 512 kbps we paid for), our thoughts had begun to wander to WiMax, but sadly, cold water is being poured on that hope too. On continuing discussion of municipal wireless there is a great quote in here: ‘Using municipal Wi-Fi for residential coverage, [Sanjit Biswas] said, was “the equivalent of expecting street lamps to light everyone’s homes.” ‘ Wireless Internet for All, Without the Towers – New York Times WiMax, which will be a high-power version of the tower approach, comes in two flavors: mobile, which has not yet been certified, and fixed, which is theoretically well suited for residential deployment. Unfortunately, it’s pricey. Peter Bell, a research analyst at TeleGeography Research in Washington, said fixed WiMax would not be able to compete against cable and DSL service: “It makes more economic sense in semirural areas that have no broadband coverage.
Now Motorola is said to be doing badly because the Razr ceased to be fashionable after I bought one! But seriously, if people are upgrading phones in less than 24 months on average, the second-hand market must be huge. Is this the answer to solving the affordability barrier at the Bottom of the Pyramid? Cellphone Envy Lays Motorola Low – New York Times Motorola’s fortunes have plunged along with the price of its Razr. Its profits have collapsed, and it announced plans last month to lay off 3,500 workers.
LIRNEasia has been moved to Denmark, but hey, we take whatever coverage we can get! Missed call virus bugs telecom firms A study by Learning Initiatives on Reforms for Network Economies (Lirne), a Denmark-based NGO that focusses on telecom issues, shows that over half of India’s 140 million mobile subscribers make missed calls to convey a pre-agreed message. As many as 95 per cent of the pre-paid customers used missed calls for this purpose, the study added. For operators, missed calls clog networks without earning them revenue, also frustrating genuine callers with “network busy” messages. “Missed calls use microwave links, the backhaul and the exchange and yet we make no money,” said a senior executive of Hutchison-Essar.
Sri Lanka completed a major change in the numbering plan in 2003. That included provision for toll free numbers. However, from the report below, it appears that the necessary implementation actions have not been taken. LANKA BUSINESS ONLINE – LBO Though Sri Lanka does not have a toll free number system, HSBC has arranged with fixed and mobile operators to offer a toll free number. “We will expect lot more customers to use phone banking as it is easier and free of charge,” says Chandima Liyanage, who is in charge of HSBC’s distribution channels.
Free media Movement – Sri Lanka Press Release 30 January 2007 Internet facilities and 8,000 telephones cut off in Jaffna Peninsula The Free Media Movement (FMM) is deeply disturbed to learn that basic communications facilities to the Jaffna Peninsula have been blocked from 28th January 2007. Internet facilities and around 8,000 landline telephones of Sri Lanka Telecom (SLT) are dysfunctional to date. SLT, jointly owned by the Sri Lankan Government and Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corporation (NTT) of Japan, is the sole Internet provider in Jaffna Peninsula with a population of around 600,000 according to official statistics. The FMM was told that there is no official decision by the Telecommunication Regulatory Authority to block communications in this manner in the Peninsula. However, a number of citizens in Jaffna and journalists confirm that there is no Internet access in Jaffna for the past 3 three days, when contacted through mobile phones.
How will John Gage’s proposal play out in the telecom eco-system of developing countries? Who will operate them? Will they suffer the same fate as ICTA’s VSAT based connectivity for telecenters, where you can do Internet but cannot call the next village? Can you just drop technology in, without addressing the overall institutional setting? At Davos, the Squabble Resumes on How to Wire the Third World – New York Times Separately at the meeting on Saturday, John Gage, the chief researcher at Sun Microsystems, proposed an industry plan to deploy advanced data networks in developing economies with contributions of engineering staff time of 1 percent.
Nokia, which had a few bad years, appears to be making a comeback on the shoulders of exploding markets in the Asia Pacific. LIRNEasia research shows that there is plenty of room for market expansion in the Asia Pacific, especially at the bottom of the pyramid. If Nokia and other equipment suppliers address this market proactively, they can have many more good years. Nokia Net Up 19%, Topping Estimates – New York Times Nokia, which is based in Espoo, Finland, shipped a record 106 million units in the quarter, up 26 percent from a year earlier and 19 percent from the third quarter. Nokia said its fourth-quarter market share was unchanged from 36 percent in the third quarter and up from 34 percent a year earlier, led by gains in all regions except North America.
LBO reports of the release of a low-budget handset for the Sri Lankan market by Motorola, the MotoFone F3. Some of the features include two week stand-by time, high quality speaker, voice prompts, etc. Motorola even hopes to bring localised phones with Sinhalese script into the market soon. It hopes that the MotoFone F3, available for as little as LKR5,000 (approx. USD46) will boost its share in the local handset market with the new low cost handset.
LIRNEasia’s Executive Director and Lead Economist participated at the 10th annual telecom conference and exhibition organized by Informa Telecoms and Media, GSM>3G, held in Mumbai, India on 22-23 January. LIRNEasia’s Lead Economist, Harsha de Silva presented the Indian findings of LIRNEasia’s five-country teleuse study, ‘Teleuse on a Shoestring:2,’ during the session entitled ‘Connecting the Next Billion.’ | View presentation slides Executive Director, Rohan Samarajiva was also invited as a panel discussant on ‘Widening Access for Rural Communities,’ along side top administrator of India’s universal service obligation fund as well as President of New Projects of Indian operator, Spice Telecom. The conference brought together key players in the GSM community from around the world as well as India to discuss key issues affecting the mobile industry, including 3G, regulation, international investment, Next Generation Networks, coverage, penetration, IMS and MMS. It was organized by Informa Telecoms and Media, as a part of a world series of annual conferences, located in regional hubs within fast growing markets.